At least 10 aspirants have signed up to contest the September 20 vote largely seen as a two-man race between incumbent President Rupiah Banda and opposition Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata, a gruff populist critical of what he sees as the increasing influence of foreign firms over the economy.
“It is too close to call,” said political analyst Lee Habasonda of the University of Zambia.
Banda has won accolades from foreign mining firms for opening the country to international investment, especially from China, and providing clear regulations on operations that have helped keep the playing field level.
Banda, leader of the Movement for Multi-party Democracy, and Sata have pledged hefty spending to woo voters by building up a woefully inadequate infrastructure in the country with a $13 billion a year economy.
Banda has proposed spending 1 trillion kwacha on the upgrading of urban roads and intends more spending on other infrastructure such as schools, clinics and bridges.
“In the case of a Banda/MMD victory, we expect that the Zambian government will quite quickly come to the market with a US$500m debut Eurobond to kick start this spending push,” Citi said in a research note.
The prospects of more borrowing to finance the upgrades coincide with worries there could be less money heading into state coffers from mining taxes and exports.