The governorship vote in Southern Kordofan has also grabbed world attention because the candidate for the north’s ruling party is Ahmed Haroun, a man wanted by the International Criminal Court over charges of war crimes in Darfur.
People from Sudan’s oil-producing south overwhelmingly voted to declare independence in a January referendum promised in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war with the north.
Southern Kordofan will remain in the north after the split. But many of its population, particularly in the Nuba Mountains area, fought alongside southern rebels during the civil war and fear they will be targeted in the new, separate north Sudan.
The south’s dominant party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), has already accused the north’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of using militias to intimidate voters.
“If they (the polls) fail, Southern Kordofan’s elections may yield localised violence…and destabilise the state,” said political analyst Aly Verjee.
Sudanese political analyst Eltaieb Zain Elabdeen said incumbent governor Haroun would probably win the vote.
“The SPLM won’t accept the result so they could mobilise their militia. I think there could be some clashes,” he said.
International election observers from the Carter Center last month said they were concerned about low registration for the vote, which also covers state assembly seats.
The SPLM is planning to stay in the north as an opposition party after the split and is fielding Abdelaziz el-Helu against Haroun in the governorship race.
OIL TENSIONS
Khartoum is due to lose control of up to 75 percent of the country’s 500,000 barrels per day oil production when the south leaves.
Southern Kordofan holds the most productive fields left in north. It is also key to Khartoum because it neighbours Darfur and the disputed, oil-producing Abyei border region, another possible north-south flashpoint in the build-up to secession.
“Southern Kordofan remains one of Sudan’s most heavily militarised regions … There are credible reports of recent military build-up in the state, largely linked to the situation in nearby Abyei,” Verjee wrote in a report.
Southern Kordofan’s elections were delayed from April last year after the SPLM accused Khartoum of rigging a census and other preparations for the vote.
Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir held onto power in last year’s election and his NCP won an overwhelming victory in the north. The SPLM dominated the south.
In Kadugli, voters hoped no violence would erupt.
“The elections will pass peacefully, just like the elections of the presidency. At that time people were concerned over the issue but it was conducted peacefully,” said a women who gave her name as Thuraya.