A survey published this week by Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine appears to confirm that Taiwan’s process of demilitarization is rapidly gaining steam. Based on a sample of students aged 12 to 17, it found only 38.7 percent would be ready to see either themselves or a family member fight if a new war broke out, while 44.3 percent would not. The remainder had no opinion.
Aside from shining a light on the huge changes taking place in Taiwanese society, the Commonwealth findings offer a big challenge for Taiwan’s military, which is already struggling with a constricted defense budget and U.S. reluctance to supply it with the weapons it says it needs to cope with China’s ambitious military modernization.
While Taiwan plans to end its current system of 11-month mandatory male conscription in favor of an all-volunteer force by 2014, a lack of funds and difficulty in attracting recruits are almost certain to push back that date by several years.
China has never renounced its long-standing threat to take over the island by force should it move to make its de facto independence permanent, or delay unification indefinitely. It currently aims an estimated 1,500 missiles at Taiwanese targets, and conducts frequent drills simulating an invasion across the 100-mile- (160-kilometer-) wide Taiwan Strait.