AUSTRALIA’S alliance with the US will be on strong ground whoever wins next month’s presidential election, a new study concludes. Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove says the foreign policies of President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are in many ways strikingly similar, and a change in the White House won’t mean too much change for Australia.
“President Obama is not as left-wing and dovish as many believe and Governor Romney is not as right-wing and hawkish as he would have us believe,” Dr Fullilove says in his paper, to be launched in Sydney on Tuesday.
Similarly, whether Prime Minister Julia Gillard or Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wins the 2013 Australian election, they’ll be able to work with an Obama or Romney administration.
“Whichever combination of the Rubik’s Cube of political leadership clicks into place, the alliance will be secure,” Dr Fullilove writes.
The alliance is deep and “grinds on regardless of the personalities of the political leaders at the summit”.
Dr Fullilove does suggest however that Romney might be inclined to share Mr Abbott’s views on the importance of the so-called “Anglosphere”, the word used to describe English-speaking Western countries.
But Dr Fullilove notes that most of the Western world wants Obama to win re-election.
A Lowy poll this year found that 80 per cent of Australians would prefer Obama to win, compared with just nine per cent who would favour Romney.
Dr Fullilove says there are certainly some differences between Obama and Romney, most notably on their approaches to Russia, Israel and the United Nations.
But he suggests their apparent differences over China are more about rhetoric than substance and he predicts Romney’s approach would actually be similar to Obama’s.
He also predicts Romney would be likely to reinforce the Obama administration’s renewed focus on Asia.
On Iran’s nuclear program too, Dr Fullilove believes Romney’s hawkish rhetoric would not necessarily reflect his approach in office.
“His character and experiences lead me to conclude that he would more likely be a careful, analytical foreign policy-maker who based his decisions on expert advice and facts rather than intuition,” Dr Fullilove writes.
Dr Fullilove concludes that while Americans do face an important choice on November 6 – and their decision will be felt in Australia – the world is not at a crossroads.